https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fichier:Montreal_Skyline_winter_panorama_Jan_2006.jpg

in Météo, Villes

Quand débute la météo hivernal à Montréal?

(This post is also available in English)

Après un été particulièrement chaud et humide, les températures ont enfin refroidi à Montréal. Les modèles météorologiques ont commencé à montrer de la neige légère approchant de la région au cours des deux prochaines semaines, et il semble que nos premières températures de 0 ° C pourraient arriver dans les prochains jours. Alors, quand commençons-nous généralement à voir ce temps hivernal à Montréal?

Pour répondre à cette question, j’ai examiné les données d’ Environnement et Changement climatique Canada de l’aéroport Trudeau de Montréal (CYUL), qui produit des observations depuis 1942. Nous allons nous intéresser aux deux composantes du climat hivernal – les températures froides et la neige.

Premières températures de gel

Premièrement, examinons le premier jour d’automne où la température minimale quotidienne atteint au moins 0 ° C. Dans le graphique ci-dessous, la date de chaque année est tracée, avec une moyenne mobile sur 10 ans indiquée dans la ligne bleue. Avant 1990 environ, le premier jour à 0 ° C se produisait presque toujours entre la dernière semaine de septembre et la troisième semaine d’octobre. Depuis 2005, par contre, le premier jour de 0 ° C s’est toujours produit entre la deuxième semaine d’octobre et la première semaine de novembre. Le premier jour de 0 ° C est maintenant le 25 octobre en moyenne, une augmentation de plus de 2 semaines depuis 1990, alors que la moyenne se situait autour du 8 octobre.

Première chute de neige

Maintenant, regardons quand les premières observations de neige ont eu lieu. Il y a deux façons de regarder les chutes de neige. Tout d’abord, examinons le premier cas d’observation de la neige (même si elle est mélangée à de la pluie). S’il n’y a pas d’accumulation sur le sol, il est signalé comme une «trace» dans l’observation quotidienne. Nous examinerons également séparément les chutes de neige mesurables , qui nécessitent une accumulation de neige d’au moins 0,2 cm.

Voici un aperçu de la date du premier jour d’observation de la neige:

La variation est plus grande ici que dans le premier graphique (notez la plus grande plage de l’axe des ordonnées), et il est plus difficile de discerner une tendance très claire. Toutefois, il est à noter que depuis 2002, la neige n’a jamais été observée avant le 17 octobre, ce qui était assez courant avant 2002. La première chute de neige moyenne sur tout le record est le 22 octobre. La première chute le plus tôt est tombée le 20 septembre, en 1962 et 1977, et la plus tardive a été le 23 novembre 2011.

Les premières chutes de neige mesurables ont tendance à se produire environ une à deux semaines plus tard que les premiers flocons de neige, avec une date moyenne à long terme du 4 novembre. Bien que la tendance soit presque plate, la moyenne mobile a progressé quelques jours plus tard ces dernières années, vers le 12 novembre.

Résumé

Nous sommes sur le point d’entrer dans la période typique où le gel et la neige commencent à se produire ici à Montréal. Le premier jour à 0 ° C a maintenant tendance à se situer autour du 25 octobre, plus ou moins une semaine (soit environ 2 semaines plus tard qu’avant 1990). Ces dernières années, les premiers flocons de neige tombent en moyenne au cours de la première semaine de novembre, la plupart des années allant du 15 octobre au 15 novembre. Les premières chutes de neige mesurables ont tendance à se produire une ou deux semaines plus tard.

Il est important de noter que la période hivernale à Montréal est de plus en plus courte avec le changement climatique. Bien que cela puisse sembler une bonne chose si vous n’êtes pas fan du froid, il y a des effets négatifs locaux que vous n’avez peut-être pas pris en compte. Par exemple, Montréal possède un très grand nombre de patinoires extérieures dans ses parcs en hiver, et les changements climatiques ont considérablement raccourci les saisons pour ces patinoires partout au Canada. La Ville de Montréal dépense des millions de dollars pour la réfrigération des patinoires afin de prolonger la saison. L’année dernière, la ville a fermé de façon permanente la patinoire sur le lac Beaver, sur le mont Royal, à cause d’une glace maintenant extrêmement mince:

«Avec le réchauffement climatique, nous avons connu une année terrible en termes de fonte des glaces», a déclaré Luc Ferrandez, responsable des parcs et des espaces verts au sein du comité exécutif de la ville.

“En fait, ce fut la pire année de tous les temps: nous sommes passés de 100 jours d’ouverture par an à 37.”

Et ces effets négatifs locaux sont encore faibles comparés à ce que vivent d’autres régions du monde. Consultez le rapport Synthèse 2015 d’Ouranos pour plus d’informations sur les changements climatiques au Québec.

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