Xingchao Chen;
Fuqing Zhang
Pennsylvania State University
The 8th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop
Predicting Hurricane Intensity and Associated Hazards of Hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria: The Real-Time Forecast Experiment with Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Observations
Talk:
Chen_PSU_EnKF_Realtime.pptx
Performance in the prediction of 2017 major hurricanes intensity and associated hazards has been evaluated for the PSU convection-permitting forecast system that uses ensemble data assimilation techniques to ingest high-resolution airborne radar observations from the inner core. This system performed well for three major Atlantic hurricanes occurred during the 2017 hurricane season: Harvey, Irma and Maria that induced a total damage more than 360 billion (USD). The PSU EnKF system produced good deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of not only track and intensity, but also of the spatial distributions of surface wind and rainfall. When compared to the HWRF real-time system and the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast, the PSU EnKF system reduced the day-2-to-day-4 intensity and track forecast errors. Empowered by sufficient computing resources, advances in both deterministic and probabilistic hurricane prediction will enable emergency management officials, the private sector, and the general public to make more informed decisions that minimize the losses of life and property.
Performance in the prediction of 2017 major hurricanes intensity and associated hazards has been evaluated for the PSU convection-permitting forecast system that uses ensemble data assimilation techniques to ingest high-resolution airborne radar observations from the inner core. This system performed well for three major Atlantic hurricanes occurred during the 2017 hurricane season: Harvey, Irma and Maria that induced a total damage more than 360 billion (USD). The PSU EnKF system produced good deterministic and probabilistic forecasts of not only track and intensity, but also of the spatial distributions of surface wind and rainfall. When compared to the HWRF real-time system and the National Hurricane Center’s official forecast, the PSU EnKF system reduced the day-2-to-day-4 intensity and track forecast errors. Empowered by sufficient computing resources, advances in both deterministic and probabilistic hurricane prediction will enable emergency management officials, the private sector, and the general public to make more informed decisions that minimize the losses of life and property.
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