The 8th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop

Schedule of the 8th EnKF workshop


Monday May 7, 16 talks and an evening poster session:


8: 30 – 8:40    welcome


Oral session 1:   Pushing limits, 4 talks, session chair: Fuqing Zhang


8:40 – 9:10 Invited 30 minute presentation


1)    Massimo Bonavita : Ensemble data assimilation at ECMWF: past present and future.


9:10 – 10:10 3 20 minute talks (including questions) 


2)    Sergey Frolov, Douglas R. Allen, Craig H. Bishop, Rolf Langland, Karl W. Hoppel and David Kuhl :  First application of the local ensemble transform tangent linear model (LETLM) to a realistic model of the global atmosphere.

3)    Takemasa Miyoshi, J. Ruiz, G.-Y. Lien, T. Teramura, Y. Maejima, K. Kondo and H. Sakamoto : Is 30-second update fast enough for convection-resolving data assimilation?

4)    Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue, Gang Zhao, Fanyou Kong, Kevin Thomas, Timothy Supinie, Keith Brewster and Nathan Snook : Caps Real-time storm-scale EnKF data assimilation and forecasts for the NOAA hazardous weather testbed spring forecasting experiments: towards the goal of operational ensemble-variational data assimilation for convection-permitting models.


10:10 – 10:40  morning break


Oral session 2: Hybrid systems, 4 talks, session chair: Xuguang Wang


10:40 – 12:00

1)    Chih-Chien Chang, Stephen G. Penny and Shu-Chih Yang : Exploring the impacts of orthogonal updates in Hybrid Gain Data Assimilation.

2)    Pieter Houtekamer, Mark Buehner and Michèle De La Chevrotière: Use of the hybrid gain algorithm to sample analysis error.

3)    Michèle De La Chevrotière and Pieter Houtekamer : Spread-skill relationships in a hybrid gain algorithm.

4)    Seung-Jong Baek, Joël Bédard and Pieter Houtekamer :  Recentering of a regional ensemble Kalman filter.


12 :00 – 1:30 Lunch


Oral Session 3: Localization, 4 talks, session chair: Lili Lei


1 :30 – 2 :50


1)    Anna Shlyaeva, Jeff Whitaker and Chris Snyder: Model space localization in serial ensemble filters.

2)    Axel Hutt, H. Reich, R. Faulwetter, A. Rhodin, M. Weissmann, C. Schraff and R. Potthast : Vertical localization of zero cloud impact SEVIRI Infrared Data Using the KENDA ensemble data assimilation system.

3)    Bo Huang, Xuguang Wang and Craig Bishop : High-Rank Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter.

4)    Daisuke Hotta : Toward Improved LETKF assimilation of non-local and dense observations by direct covariance localization in model space.


2 :50- 3 :20 afternoon break


Oral Session 4: Transport problems and non-Gaussian problems (4 talks), session chair: Jonathan Poterjoy


 3:20 – 4:40


1)    Laura Slivinski, Amit Apte and Elaine Spiller : Recent applications of the hybrid particle-ensemble Kalman filter in lagrangian data assimilation.

2)    Jonathan Stroud, Matthias Katzfuss and Christopher K. Wikle : Extended Ensemble Kalman filters for high-dimensional hierarchical state-space models.

3)    Hans W. Chen, Fuqing Zhang, Thomas Lauvaux, Richard B. Alley and Kenneth J. Davis : Constraining regional-scale CO2 fluxes using a coupled meteorological-carbon ensemble Kalman filter.

4)    Atsushi Okazaki, Takemasa Miyoshi, Kei Yoshimura and Fuqing Zhang: Exploring online data assimilation for paleoclimate reconstruction using an idealized OSSE framework.


Evening : Poster session with cash bar.


Tuesday May 8, 15 20 minutes talks + poster session + key-note presentation


Oral Session 5: Model error I, 5 talks, session chair: Richard Ménard


8 :30 – 10 :10

1)    Glen Romine, Jeff Anderson, Craig Schwartz and Kate Fossell : Covariance inflation considerations for a continuously-cycled mesoscale EnKF analysis system.

2)    Jeffrey Whitaker and Philip Pegion : Parametrizing Model Uncertainty Due to unresolved dynamics in ensemble forecasts.

3)    Sho Yokota, Hiromu Seko, Masaru Kunii, Hiroshi Yamauchi and Eiichi Sato : State-dependent additive covariance inflation for radar reflectivity assimilation.

4)    Javier Amezcua and Peter Jan van Leeuwen : Ensemble smoothers in the presence of model error. Exact and ensemble solutions.

5)    Marc Bocquet, Pavel Sakov and Jean-Matthieu Haussaire : An iterative ensemble Kalman filter in presence of additive model error.


10:10 – 11:00 poster session with coffee


Oral Session 6: Convective scales, 3 talks, session chair: Youngsun Jung


11:00 -12:00


1)    David Dowell : Development and testing of a high-resolution rapid refresh ensemble (HRRRE).

2)    Rong Kong, Ming Xue and Chengsi Liu: Hybrid En3DVar radar data assimilation and comparisons with 3DVar and EnKF with OSSEs and a real case.

3)    Jonathan Labriola, Nathan Snook, Youngsun Jung, Ming Xue and Bryan Putnam : Evaluation of a data assimilation and forecast system for high-resolution explicit hail prediction.


12:00 – 1:30 Lunch


Oral Session 7: Assimilation of radar observations, 4 talks, session chair: David Dowell


1:30 - 2:50


1)    Frederic Fabry : Reflection on the Challenges of radar data assimilation at meso-convective scales in an ensemble context.

2)    Christopher Kerr and Xuguang Wang : Impact of multi-function phased array radar targeted observations on ensemble-based numerical prediction of convective storms.

3)    Timothy Supinie, Youngsun Jung, Nusrat Yussouf and Ming Xue : Assimilation of phased array radar data with the 4-dimensional ensemble Kalman filter.

4)    Andrés Perez Hortal, I Zawadzki and M-K. Yau : A heuristic approach to radar data assimilation.


2:50 – 3:20 afternoon break


Oral Session 8: Global systems, 3 talks, session chair: Mark Buehner


3:20 – 4:20


1)    Marco Carrera, Maziar Banishahabadi, Bernard Bilodeau, Sylvain Heilliette, Stephane Belair and Peter Houtekamer : Preliminary experiments in the coupling of the Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS) with the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) at Environment and Climate Change Canada.

2)    Mohammed Jardak, N.E. Bowler, A.M. Clayton, G.W. Inverarity, A.C. Lorenc and M.A. Wlasak : Recent Developments in the Met Office Ensemble Prediction System MOGREPS-G.

3)    Michael Herrera, Istvan Szunyogh, Adam Brainard, Dave Kuhl, Karl Hoppel, Craig Bishop, Teddy Holt and Qingyun Zhao : Regionally Enhanced Global (REG) Data Assimilation (DA).



Evening : invited presentation


21:00  John Poterjoy : Toward the application of particle filters for numerical weather prediction and research.


Wednesday May 9, 1 40 minute talk, 15 20 minute talks + key-note presentation


Oral session 9: Assimilation of radiance observations, 5 talks, session chair: Massimo Bonavita


8:30 – 9:10 40 minutes

           Fuqing Zhang : Convection-permitting assimilation of all-sky MW and IR radiances.


9:10 – 10:30 4 talks of 20 minutes


1)    Lili Lei, Jeff Whitaker and Jeff Anderson : Adaptive localization for satellite radiance observations in an ensemble Kalman filter.

2)    Yoichiro Ota : Localization methods for assimilating dense observations in the global LETKF.

3)    Herschel Mitchell, P.L. Houtekamer and Sylvain Heilliette : Assimilation of AMSU-A radiances in an EnKF column environment.

4)    Yunji Zhang, Fuqing Zhang and David J. Stensrud : Assimilating all-sky infrared radiance from GOES-16 ABI using ensemble Kalman filter for convection-permitting severe thunderstorm predictions


10:30 – 11:00 morning break of 30 minutes


Oral session 10: Multi-scale methods, 3 talks, session chair: Kayo Ide.


11:00 -12:00


1)    Xingchao Chen and Fuqing Zhang : Predicting Hurricane intensity and associated hazards of hurricane Harvey, Irma and Maria: the real-time forecast experiment with assimilation of airborne Doppler radar observations.

2)    Jean-François Caron, Yann Michel, Thibaut Montmerle and Étienne Arbogast : Improving background-error covariances in a 3D ensemble-variational data assimilation system for convective scale NWP.

3)    Xuguang Wang, Junkyung Kay, Bo Huang, Daryl Kleist and Ting Lei : Development of the GSI-based hybrid 4DEnVar system with multi-resolution ensembles and multi-scale covariance localization for global numerical weather prediction.


12:00 – 1:30 Lunch


Oral session 11: observation sensitivity + diagnostics I, 4 talks, session chair: Istvan Szunyogh.


1:30 - 2:50


1)    Kayo Ide : Incorporating Prior Knowledge in observability-based path planning for Ocean Sampling.

2)    Mark Buehner, Ping Du and Ron McTaggart-Cowan : Using ensembles to estimate the forecast impact of observations within the Canadian 4D-EnVar.

3)    Shunji Kotsuki, Kenta Kurosawa and Takemasa Miyoshi :  Ensemble forecast sensitivity to observations verified with multiple references.

4)    Takumi Honda, Takamasa Miyoshi, Guo-Yuan Lien, Seiya Nishizawa, Ryuji Yoshida, Sachihi A. Adachi1, Koji Terasaki, Kozo Okamoto, Hirofumi Tomita and Kotaro Bessho: Assimilating All-Sky Himawari-8 Infrared radiances: A case of typhoon Soudelor (2015).


2:50 – 3:20 refreshments


Oral session 12: observation sensitivity + diagnostics II, 4 talks, session chair Marc Bocquet


3:20 – 4:40


1)    Richard Menard and Martin Deshaies-Jacques : Diagnostic of analysis error covariance by cross-validation.

2)    Kao-Shen Chung and Ching-Yin Ke : Impact of assimilation temperature and humidity information with radar data at convective scale: an observing system simulation experiment.

3)    Thomas Gastaldo, Virginia Poli, Chiari Marsigli, Tiziana Paccagnella and Pier Paolo Alberoni : Impact of the observational error in the assimilation of radar reflectivity volumes.

4)    Shu-Chih Yang and Jhe-Hui Lin : Ensemble transform Kalman incremental smoother and its impact on severe weather prediction.


Afternoon break


Evening :  invited presentation


21:00 Geir Evensen: Analysis of Iterative ensemble smoothers for solving inverse problems. 


Thursday May 10, 4 talks + Grand discussion


Oral session 13 diagnostics and predictability, 4 talks, session chair: Takemasa Miyoshi


8:30 – 9:00 Tse-Chun Chen, Kriti Bhargava, Takuma Yoshida and Eugenia Kalnay: Invited presentation: New applications of DA to improve models and observations.


9:00 - 10:00:


1)    Istvan Szunyogh and Fan Han : How well can the NCEP global ensemble forecast system capture the uncertainty in the analysis and forecast of winter storm precipitation.

2)    Montgomery Flora, Corey Potvin and Louis Wicker : Practical predictability of supercells: exploring ensemble forecast sensitivity to EnKF analysis spread.

3)    Robert Nystrom and Fuqing Zhang : Historic rapid intensification of hurricane Patricia (2015): Cloud-resolving analysis and prediction through ensemble assimilation of dropsonde, radar and satellite observations.


10:00 – 10:30 morning break (and departure of first bus to airport).


10:30 – 11:30 Grand discussion, leads: Pieter Houtekamer and Fuqing Zhang


11:30 – 11:40 Workshop closure


List of poster presentations (in alphabetical order of first names)


1)    Atsushi Okazaki, Takumi Honda, Shuji Kotsuki, Takemasa Miyoshi : Dense precipitation radar data assimilation : an observing system simulation experiment for a typhoon case.

2)    Chih-Chien Tsai and Youngsun Jung: Quantitative precipitation forecasting with polarimetric radar data assimilation: typhoon Soudelor (2015).

3)    Daisuke Hotta, Eugenia Kalnay, Yoichiro Ota and Takemasa Miyoshi : EFSR: Ensemble forecast sensitivity to observation error covariance.

4)    Daniel Leuenberger and Claire Merker : Additive covariance inflation in an operational, convective-scale NWP ensemble Kalman filter assimilation system.

5)    Dominik Jacques, Weiguang Chang, Seung-Jong Baek, Thomas Milewski, Luc Fillion, Kao-Shen Chung and Harold Ritchie : The influence of model resolution on background covariances.

6)    Paride Ferrante, Francesca Marcucci and Lucio Torrisi : Use of satellite soil moisture information for short range NWP forecasts.

7)    Sergey Frolov, P. Laloyaux, M. Bonavita, and B. Menetrier: Implicit and explicit cross correlations in coupled data assimilation.

8)    Shunji Kotsuki, Steven J. Greybush and Takemasa Miyoshi : On the assimilation order of the serial ensemble Kalman filter: a study with the Lorenz-96 model.

9)    Shunji Kotsuki, Koji Terasaki and Takemasa Miyoshi : Ensemble-based data assimilation of GPM/DPR reflectivity into the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM).

10) Vikram Khade, Saroja Polavarapu, Michael Neish, Pieter Houtekamer and Dylan Jones : State estimation of CO with EC-GHG-EnKF by ingesting surface observations in an OSSE framework.