Chiara Marsigli;
Tiziana Paccagnella;
Andrea Montani;
Davide Cesari;
Maria Stefania Tesini
Arpae SIMC
The 8th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop
Impact of LETKF analyses as Initial Conditions for a convection-permitting ensemble forecasting system.
Poster:
The COSMO-2I-EPS convection-permitting ensemble is based on the COSMO model run at a resolution of 2.2 km, aiming at providing probabilistic information in the context of operational forecast of mescoscale phenomena and severe weather over Italy.
The strategy adopted in the ensemble construction includes the representation of different uncertainty sources: Initial Condition perturbation from a LETKF-based data assimilation, Boundary Condition perturbation from a coarser-resolution ensemble and perturbation of the COSMO model by combining perturbating of a set of parameters of the physics schemes.
The predictability of severe weather phenomena (with focus on thunderstorms) over Italy is here studied, focussing on the effect of the perturbed Initial Conditions derived from the LEKTF scheme for high resolution precipitation forecast at the very short range. The role of physics perturbation in determining the onset and evolution of the precipitation systems is also addressed.
The COSMO-2I-EPS convection-permitting ensemble is based on the COSMO model run at a resolution of 2.2 km, aiming at providing probabilistic information in the context of operational forecast of mescoscale phenomena and severe weather over Italy.
The strategy adopted in the ensemble construction includes the representation of different uncertainty sources: Initial Condition perturbation from a LETKF-based data assimilation, Boundary Condition perturbation from a coarser-resolution ensemble and perturbation of the COSMO model by combining perturbating of a set of parameters of the physics schemes.
The predictability of severe weather phenomena (with focus on thunderstorms) over Italy is here studied, focussing on the effect of the perturbed Initial Conditions derived from the LEKTF scheme for high resolution precipitation forecast at the very short range. The role of physics perturbation in determining the onset and evolution of the precipitation systems is also addressed.
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