David Dowell
NOAA ESRL GSD
The 8th EnKF Data Assimilation Workshop
Development and Testing of a High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble (HRRRE)
Talk:
Dowell_EnKF_workshop_2018.pptx
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is an hourly-updated 3-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) convective-allowing model (CAM) developed at the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Global Systems Division (GSD) and run operationally at the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The current HRRR provides deterministic guidance for 0 to 36 hours over the United States. The forecasts aid in producing severe weather outlooks and watches, predicting aviation hazards, and providing guidance for renewable energy applications.
The future of CAM systems like the HRRR will be ensemble analyses and forecasts, to increase skill and provide uncertainty information for forecast applications. A prototype HRRR Ensemble (HRRRE) is under development and is running experimentally in real time. This presentation will overview the HRRRE system design including the EnKF assimilation of conventional and radar observations, ensemble perturbations, and forecasts. Case studies and statistics for weeks/months will be described to quantify the impacts of the ensemble data assimilation and to highlight strengths and weaknesses of the current experimental system. Results will guide continued development toward a goal of an operational implementation of a single-core, convective-allowing ensemble analysis and forecasting system.
The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) is an hourly-updated 3-km Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) convective-allowing model (CAM) developed at the Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Global Systems Division (GSD) and run operationally at the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The current HRRR provides deterministic guidance for 0 to 36 hours over the United States. The forecasts aid in producing severe weather outlooks and watches, predicting aviation hazards, and providing guidance for renewable energy applications.
The future of CAM systems like the HRRR will be ensemble analyses and forecasts, to increase skill and provide uncertainty information for forecast applications. A prototype HRRR Ensemble (HRRRE) is under development and is running experimentally in real time. This presentation will overview the HRRRE system design including the EnKF assimilation of conventional and radar observations, ensemble perturbations, and forecasts. Case studies and statistics for weeks/months will be described to quantify the impacts of the ensemble data assimilation and to highlight strengths and weaknesses of the current experimental system. Results will guide continued development toward a goal of an operational implementation of a single-core, convective-allowing ensemble analysis and forecasting system.
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